Conference Paper Session 10 Using Occupancy and Actual Short-Term/Long-Term Energy Data to Develop More Accurate Modeling Tools

Tuesday, June 27, 2017: 8:00 AM-9:30 AM
Fundamentals and Applications
Chair: Alamelu Brooks, ICF International
Improved accuracy in modeling can be dependent on getting the data points right. Some of the key elements in modeling any particular building can be affected by issues such as: determining what equipment will actually be part of the plug load; sudden changes in building operation due to transient-state vs. steady-state trending; and accurate predictions of occupancy. This session introduces research dealing with each of these areas and how they can be utilized to obtain more accurate modeling.

1  Case Study on the Validity of Energy Simulation and Energy Measuring in the Office ZEB in California, U.S. (LB-17-C032)

Hidemitsu Koyanagi, Ph.D., TAISEI Corporation
Alan Meier, Ph.D., Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
In California there are 70 non-residential and apartment house ZNE projects in 2015, whereas there are 21 ZNE projects in Japan in 2015. Hence, it’s supposed to be a good example for ZNE dissemination in Japan to clarify the problems toward ZNE dissemination in California. This paper addresses the energy performance of a ZNE office building in Northern California from the perspectives of simulation, measurement, verification, and code compliance. Simulations of the building’s energy use were undertaken during the design stage to demonstrate code compliance and measurements of actual energy use were taken for six months after occupancy.

2  Improving the Accuracy of Building Energy Simulation Using Real-Time Occupancy Schedule and Metered Electricity Consumption Data (LB-17-C033)

Chandra Sekhar, Ph.D., National University of Singapore
Junjing Yang, Ph.D., National University of Singapore
Prashant Anand, National University of Singapore
David Cheong, Ph.D., National University of Singapore
Occupancy plays a significant role in the amount of energy used in buildings and their presence is stochastic in nature. There is extensive evidence to suggest that buildings usually do not perform as well as predicted by energy simulation. Use of unrealistic occupancy data as an input of building energy modelling (BEM) is a major reason behind it. As a result, large discrepancies are being observed between predicted and actual energy performance, typically averaging around 30% and reaching as high as 100% in some cases. This paper covers research that aims to develop an occupancy prediction model using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for improving the accuracy of building energy simulation.

3  Half-Hourly Regional Electricity Price Modelling for Commercial End Users in the UK (LB-17-C034)

Salvador Acha, Ph.D., Imperial College London
Aitor Soler, Imperial College London
Gonzalo Bustos, P.Eng., Imperial College London
Nilah Shah, Ph.D., Imperial College London
The increase in the electricity bills and the new opportunities to participate in the electricity market has encouraged companies with activities not related to the energy industry to engage and actively participate in the electricity market to reduce costs and become more competitive. With the overarching goal of making cost-effective investments and decarbonizing their operation, the first step to improve these companies’ bottom line is to comprehend their electricity costs. This paper focuses on detailing a methodology to model electricity commercial bills and generate real-time price curves; thus allowing customers to calculate their half-hourly true cost of electricity and to assess the challenges of reaching net zero energy buildings for different UK regions and connection voltage levels, across every month up to the financial year 2019-20.

4  A Systematic Feature Selection Procedure for Data-driven Building Energy Forecasting Model Development (LB-17-C035)

Liang Zhang, Drexel University
Jin Wen, Ph.D., Drexel University
An accurate building energy forecasting model is the key for real-time control of advanced building energy system and building-to-grid integration. Feature selection, the process of selecting a subset of relevant features, is an essential procedure in data-driven modeling due to its ability to reduce model complexity, increase model interpretability, and enhance model generalization. In building energy modeling research, features are often selected purely based on domain knowledge. There lacks a comprehensive methodology to guide the feature selection process when developing building energy forecasting models. In this research, a systematic feature selection procedure for developing building energy forecasting models is proposed in consideration of statistical data analysis, building physics and engineering practices. The procedure includes three main steps: (Step 1) rule-based feature pre-selection process based on domain knowledge. (Step 2) feature removal process through filter methods to remove irrelevant and redundant variables. And (Step 3) Using wrapper method to obtain the best combinations of features. A case study is presented here using simulated building energy data that are generated from a medium sized commercial building (a DOE reference building). In this study, the energy forecasting model generated by using the proposed systematic feature selection process is compared with other models such as a model that uses conventional inputs, and a model with single feature selection technique. The comparison result shows that, in terms of cross validation error, the model with systematic feature selection process shows much better model performance than other models including that with conventional inputs and that uses only single feature selection technique.

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